Projected outcomes and length of time in the Disability Insurance program.

This article reports on the first phase of a longitudinal analysis of a random sample of 18,816 Social Security beneficiaries who were first entitled to disabled-worker benefits in 1972. These individuals were observed from the time of benefit entitlement to January 1981. This phase examines the first event of interest after entitlementthat is, recovery, death, or retirement. Mathematical models are used to project these events beyond the observation period and to calculate the proportion of beneficiaries who ultimately leave the program rolls for these reasons. Average length of time in the program is also estimated. The analysis relates these outcomes to a set of covariates that includes primary diagnosis, educational level, past occupation, primary insurance amount (PIA), sex, race, and age at entitlement. The second phase of the project analyzes the postrecovery period of the same cohort. The results appear in the second article of this issue. This study projects that 11 percent of the beneficiaries will ultimately leave the Disability Insurance program because they recover, 36 percent will have their disabled-worker benefit terminated at death, and 53 percent will have their benefits converted to retired-worker benefits at age 65-that is, they retire. Mean length of time in the program is estimated to be 9.3 years. Considerable variation was found in the outcomes and mean number of years in the program by primary diagnosis, educational level, PIA, age, and sex.